Read e-book online A simulation approach to the study of human fertility PDF

By Gigi Santow (auth.)

ISBN-10: 1461340896

ISBN-13: 9781461340898

ISBN-10: 9020707655

ISBN-13: 9789020707656

This publication is an amended and a bit of shorter model of my doctoral thesis which I submitted to the Australian nationwide collage in 1976, and hence edited on the Netherlands Interuniversity Demographic Institute in 1977. The paintings falls evidently into components. the 1st is anxious with the development and validation of a version, and the second one with its program as an experimental instrument. within the first half, comprising Chapters One to 4, an exam of historic and modern versions of inhabitants progress resulted in the choice to check adjustments in fertility through a organic micro simulation version. the explanations assisting the alternative of this sort of version have been mentioned, and a seek of the literature produced the knowledge for use as version enter. the results of various the enter have been tested after which the version output was once validated opposed to Hutterite facts. the most emphasis of the second one a part of the paintings, comprising Chapters 5 to Seven, was once the checking out of the impression at the fertility of 1 society of diversifications within the period of the publish partum interval of non-susceptibility to belief, and within the point of child and baby mortality. extra simulations have been played to find the impression on fertility of using birth control to achieve varied family members sizes, either with and with out the extra impact of toddler and baby mortality.

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46 years. 2. Computer simulation of first woman of the preliminary model IS CON 'ON I' AGE II. , 211 ..... , 1 I. 0U 36. uU ~~:U ..... 69 .. 1 STILI!.! I 1 I 1 I I I , s ", 1 I I 10 0 0 ASORT REST STILI. ZI " I a. 69 32 2' ·S'+ ",7 1. > 01i5 'ti,J°o2 .. 2. 3 21) 031 IS 22. '16 IS Sf; ... , 17. See Eaton (1952) for an account of the Hutterite's 'controlled acculturation'. 46 years. After her post partum infecund period was over there was a gap of one month before she conceived again, and her second live birth occurred at age 26 years.

Eaton and Mayer (1953) described the Hutterite's total rejection of birth control, noting that they likened it, on religious grounds, to murder, and stressing that their nuptial behaviour seemed to fit closely their religious beliefs. Further, there are no economic incentives for family planning. Tietze (1957) actually made his Hutterite study with the aim of examining 'procreative capacity in the human female' (p. 89), pointing out with 15. See de Castro (1952) for a now totally discredited thesis that protein deficiency causes high fertility.

The construction of this preliminary simulation has been a useful exercise, as well as a welcome respite from the theorising that preceded it. The following chapter presents the fruits of a search of the literature on the biological factors affecting fertility, and endeavours to find the 'best' input data for our simulation. Chapter Four then continues the work of this section. 3. ' Frank Greystock filled his pipe as he went on with his lecture. 'That idea as to the greater number of women is all nonsense.

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A simulation approach to the study of human fertility by Gigi Santow (auth.)

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